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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankFlaznorpprimmSAPolitcsSeer
Record (consensus markets)46% (560–667, n=1227)53% (5928–5310, n=11238)50% (1078–1087, n=2165)95% (92–5, n=97)
Consensus PnL$9.4M$3.3M$3.6M$95K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #16PM monthly #51PM monthly #558
Sides with the consensus52% (11 of 21 open)68% (179 of 264 open)60% (3 of 5 open)80% (4 of 5 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—Geopolitics −1 pts, n=40
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%98% of 109 at avg 95¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)5% (won 94% of 51)0%
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)41% (won 99% of 405)0%
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)49% (won 99% of 485)1% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)5% (won 100% of 46)99% (won 98% of 108)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankFlaznorpprimmSAPolitcsSeer
Ball State vs. UMass
opposite sides · consensus UMass
—UMass $444Ball State $18—
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
Celtics $8.1KCeltics $215——
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
Jazz $217Jazz $4——