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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankCrypto-JoeFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)45% (576–717, n=1293)66% (104–53, n=157)52% (6475–6058, n=12533)
Consensus PnL$7.3M$10K$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #3PM monthly #877PM monthly #13
Sides with the consensus83% (29 of 35 open)87% (13 of 15 open)70% (242 of 345 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=100, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—Geopolitics −17 pts, n=19Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won97% of 586 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%75% of 109 at avg 63¢, ROI +12%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)11% (won 25% of 12)29% (won 11% of 465)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 206)18% (won 50% of 20)16% (won 40% of 255)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 204)25% (won 81% of 27)16% (won 62% of 260)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)46% (won 94% of 50)39% (won 94% of 637)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankCrypto-JoeFlaznorp
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $148K—Thunder $13K
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $34KYes $14K—
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
same side · consensus Thunder
Grizzlies $14K—Grizzlies $742
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Jazz $422—Jazz $227
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $50—Grizzlies $350
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
same side · consensus Pelicans
Timberwolves $167—Timberwolves $115
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
same side · consensus Bucks
Raptors $122—Raptors $61