Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BikesAreTheBikese46m3fantasy7788gmpm2
Record (consensus markets)no settled market17% (155–754, n=909)100% (2–0, n=2)100% (1–0, n=1)
Consensus PnL—$536K$245K$255K
Tracked asHand-pickedPM monthly #2PM monthly #60PM monthly #17
Sides with the consensus54% (56 of 103 open)73% (315 of 429 open)no open consensus position0% (0 of 1 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won—93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢—7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢—1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢—1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up—90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

9 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBikesAreTheBikese46m3fantasy7788gmpm2
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $2.4KYes $5——
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $291Yes $69——
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $28Yes $22——
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1No $27——
Will Ivanka Popović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
same side · consensus No
Yes $440Yes $808——
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $667Yes $5——
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $473Yes $94——
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $126Yes $72——
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $141Yes $32——
Will Zoran Stojiljković be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10Yes $19——
Will Eli Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $12——
Will Aviv Kohavi be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2Yes $10——
Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3Yes $9——