Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 72¢ · $523 held · ends Oct 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$523.21
$75.69
66.3¢ → 71.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2236h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
31 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter | Noavg 68.5¢ | $206.57 | $215.73 | +$9.16 | 42% 5279-7229 (12508) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $103.93 | $106.94 | +$3.01 | 39% 1776-2832 (4608) |
 UbuntuTrading<$100 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $79.15 | $79.71 | +$0.56 | 57% 3067-2353 (5420) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $13.06 | $71.8 | +$59.36 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $45.44 | $49.04 | +$3.6 | 36% 2079-3718 (5797) |
Invested
$206.57
Value
$215.73
PnL
+$9.16
Record
42%
5279-7229 (12508)
Invested
$103.93
Value
$106.94
PnL
+$3.01
Record
39%
1776-2832 (4608)
UbuntuTrading<$100Invested
$79.15
Value
$79.71
PnL
+$0.56
Record
57%
3067-2353 (5420)
Invested
$13.06
Value
$71.8
PnL
+$59.36
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$45.44
Value
$49.04
PnL
+$3.6
Record
36%
2079-3718 (5797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.