Will Eli Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $356 held · ended Oct 27
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$355.79
-$46.15
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $187.81 | $187.72 | -$0.09 | 8% 15-173 (188) |
DE denizzCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $184.15 | $138.11 | -$46.04 | 65% 363-194 (557) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.