Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Zoran Stojiljković be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $6 held · ended Oct 25

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.16

Combined PnL

-$71.21

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.16

Total Shares4,109

Combined PnL-$71.21

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$39.62	$3.15	-$36.47	7% 13-177 (190)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$30.36	$2.41	-$27.95	39% 1752-2712 (4464)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.77	$0.3	-$3.47	77% 8485-2471 (10956)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.73	$0.15	-$1.58	73% 7800-2859 (10659)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.89	$0.15	-$1.74	30% 189-448 (637)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.62

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$36.47

Record

13-177 (190)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.36

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$27.95

Record

39%

1752-2712 (4464)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.77

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$3.47

Record

77%

8485-2471 (10956)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.58

Record

73%

7800-2859 (10659)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.74

Record

30%

189-448 (637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.8%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$915.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

1015.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.