Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 22 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Aviv Kohavi be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

22 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $688 held · ended Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$687.98

Combined PnL

$-10.8K

Smart Money Entry

2.6¢ → 0.1¢

-94% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes22 traders

Total Value$687.98

Total Shares391,178

Combined PnL$-10.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$5.0K	$227.69	$-4.8K	6% 14-231 (245)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$156.11	$156.11	$-2.3K	43% 3090-4141 (7231)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$46.3	$98.96	-$821.19	40% 2704-4057 (6761)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.0K	$42.66	-$972.95	46% 276-322 (598)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	$29.92	$29.92	-$511.83	53% 28766-25687 (54453)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$12.71	$25.43	+$12.71	54% 1606-1395 (3001)
IN influenz.ethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$46.9	$23.8	-$407.07	42% 10300-14325 (24625)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$18.42	$18.42	-$315.05	60% 11537-7729 (19266)
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$78.65	$18.4	-$183.5	40% 9608-14533 (24141)
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$43.33	$12.68	-$107.89	31% 653-1441 (2094)
MK MKSafeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.93	$7.39	+$2.46	28% 11-28 (39)
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100	Yes	$4.56	$4.56	-$77.98	28% 649-1633 (2282)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$4.1	$4.1	-$69.56	38% 3039-4912 (7951)
RA ratedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$50.69	$3.74	-$61.43	29% 2881-7027 (9908)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yes	$3.29	$3.29	-$56.32	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$52.43	$2.2	-$50.23	37% 199-340 (539)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.47	$1.89	+$1.42	32% 6358-13264 (19622)
GE gesstCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$43.21	$1.82	-$41.4	52% 189-176 (365)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.46	$1.76	-$30.19	43% 2147-2797 (4944)
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$32.74	$1.38	-$31.37	49% 5864-6164 (12028)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$1.21	$1.21	-$17.24	36% 1994-3562 (5556)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$5.56	$0.6	-$5.11	40% 655-997 (1652)

NyetRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,999.66

Value

$227.69

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

14-231 (245)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.11

Value

$156.11

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

43%

3090-4141 (7231)

rainbowliliesCTR

Yes

Invested

$46.3

Value

$98.96

PnL

-$821.19

Record

40%

2704-4057 (6761)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,015.6

Value

$42.66

PnL

-$972.95

Record

46%

276-322 (598)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.92

Value

$29.92

PnL

-$511.83

Record

53%

28766-25687 (54453)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.71

Value

$25.43

PnL

+$12.71

Record

54%

1606-1395 (3001)

influenz.ethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.9

Value

$23.8

PnL

-$407.07

Record

42%

10300-14325 (24625)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.42

Value

$18.42

PnL

-$315.05

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$78.65

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$183.5

Record

40%

9608-14533 (24141)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$43.33

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$107.89

Record

31%

653-1441 (2094)

MKSafeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$2.46

Record

28%

11-28 (39)

0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$77.98

Record

28%

649-1633 (2282)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$69.56

Record

38%

3039-4912 (7951)

ratedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.69

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$61.43

Record

29%

2881-7027 (9908)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$56.32

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.43

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$50.23

Record

37%

199-340 (539)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$1.42

Record

32%

6358-13264 (19622)

gesstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.21

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$41.4

Record

52%

189-176 (365)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$30.19

Record

43%

2147-2797 (4944)

0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.74

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$31.37

Record

49%

5864-6164 (12028)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$17.24

Record

36%

1994-3562 (5556)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$5.11

Record

40%

655-997 (1652)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

22 of 22 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8595.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

8695.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.