Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 34¢ · $643 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$642.51
$584.47
25¢ → 34¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1997h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
28 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SardinianshepherdCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $427.89 | $581.93 | +$581.93 | 65% 920-503 (1423) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $37.8 | $41.58 | +$3.78 | 40% 1736-2647 (4383) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $19.24 | $16.49 | -$2.75 | 60% 967-641 (1608) |
 DonationsReceiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $0 | $1.7 | +$1.7 | 61% 230-144 (374) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $1 | $0.81 | -$0.19 | 58% 2958-2113 (5071) |
SardinianshepherdCTRInvested
$427.89
Value
$581.93
PnL
+$581.93
Record
65%
920-503 (1423)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$3.78
Record
40%
1736-2647 (4383)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$19.24
Value
$16.49
PnL
-$2.75
Record
60%
967-641 (1608)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
61%
230-144 (374)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
2958-2113 (5071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.