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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Aurelius7beachboy4BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)57% (235–175, n=410)67% (43–21, n=64)45% (547–663, n=1210)
Consensus PnL$3.2K$6.1M$11.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #950was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus60% (15 of 25 open)100% (1 of 1 open)68% (77 of 114 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topicCulture −2 pts, n=23NBA −6 pts, n=93—
Settled positions, side won67% of 388 at avg 49¢, ROI +10%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢16% (won 16% of 64)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 81% of 57)
Entries 30–50¢16% (won 40% of 62)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 201)
Entries 50–70¢61% (won 84% of 237)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 196)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 96% of 25)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 109)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketAurelius7beachboy4BreakTheBank
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.4K—No $120K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $26—No $34K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $96—No $28K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $445—No $607
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $79—Yes $55K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $100—Yes $36K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $43—Yes $35K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $485—No $34K
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $194—No $22K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Michigan?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $37—Yes $12K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $48—Yes $44