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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo00Aurelius7beachboy4BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)75% (6–2, n=8)57% (235–175, n=410)67% (43–21, n=64)45% (547–663, n=1210)
Consensus PnL$3.5M$3.2K$6.1M$11.0M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #19was PM monthly #950was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position36% (10 of 28 open)100% (1 of 1 open)51% (58 of 113 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Culture −2 pts, n=23NBA −6 pts, n=93—
Settled positions, side won86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25%67% of 388 at avg 49¢, ROI +10%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢0%16% (won 16% of 64)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 81% of 57)
Entries 30–50¢0%16% (won 40% of 62)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 201)
Entries 50–70¢100% (won 86% of 7)61% (won 84% of 237)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 196)
Entries 70¢ and up0%6% (won 96% of 25)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 109)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo00Aurelius7beachboy4BreakTheBank
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $152—No $331K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $1.0K—No $125K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $93—No $28K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $461—No $607
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $79—Yes $54K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $515—No $52K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $72—Yes $38K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $866—Yes $36K
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $715—No $22K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $13—Yes $18K
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $22—Yes $1.9K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $64—Yes $11