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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402BreakTheBankprimmUpTheBlues
Record (consensus markets)61% (196–125, n=321)41% (589–853, n=1442)47% (1389–1566, n=2955)51% (28265–27298, n=55563)
Consensus PnL$233K$8.4M$3.6M$1.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #316PM monthly #1PM monthly #39PM monthly #10
Sides with the consensus73% (27 of 37 open)88% (29 of 33 open)no open consensus position64% (47 of 73 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • MLB +59 pts n=1034, ROI +58%
  • Esports +62 pts n=68, ROI +63%
  • MMA +63 pts n=36, ROI +63%
Weakest topicGeopolitics −1 pts, n=134———
Settled positions, side won54% of 354 at avg 52¢, ROI +2%97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%100% of 50377 at avg 70¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢23% (won 16% of 83)10% (won 82% of 60)5% (won 94% of 51)7% (won 99% of 3291)
Entries 30–50¢23% (won 40% of 82)36% (won 98% of 212)41% (won 99% of 421)18% (won 100% of 9212)
Entries 50–70¢25% (won 56% of 90)35% (won 100% of 205)49% (won 99% of 508)20% (won 100% of 9904)
Entries 70¢ and up28% (won 96% of 99)20% (won 100% of 116)5% (won 100% of 47)56% (won 100% of 27970)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402BreakTheBankprimmUpTheBlues
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $15KYes $73K——