Consensus PnL $170K · win rate 61% (148–94, n=242) · PM monthly #942 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$170.2K
Record
148W / 94L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 242 settled
Batting Avg
39.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1190
Source
PM monthly #942
Record (90 d)
31/52 · 60%
Trades
1,351
Markets
441
Volume
$5.9M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 15 on the consensus side (87%)- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $52K · now 37¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (79% of 50)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?No $36K · now 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $22K · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (55% of 55)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $18K · now 96¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (63% of 32)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $16K · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (90% of 48)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $13K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (96% of 26)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 65¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (47% of 121)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $7.9K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (91% of 32)
Specialties
327 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 52¢- Elections
+6 pts
side won 83% of 30 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 40% of 20 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 47% of 131 at an average 49¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 15% of 79)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 38% of 76)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 54% of 82)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 96% of 90)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.