Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465feeder-of-marketsprimmRN1
Record (consensus markets)58% (4535–3309, n=7844)69% (11–5, n=16)50% (1105–1116, n=2221)47% (14161–15670, n=29831)
Consensus PnL$8.0M-$29K$3.6M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #14was PM monthly #1000PM monthly #48PM monthly #32 + pinned
Sides with the consensus64% (16 of 25 open)50% (1 of 2 open)56% (10 of 18 open)55% (44 of 80 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=459, ROI +5%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2301, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1407, ROI +4%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=136———
Settled positions, side won59% of 7119 at avg 55¢, ROI +1%86% of 14 at avg 55¢, ROI 0%99% of 1013 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1182)29% (won 75% of 4)5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2593)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1743)21% (won 67% of 3)41% (won 99% of 412)22% (won 94% of 5682)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2080)0%50% (won 99% of 503)35% (won 99% of 9181)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2114)50% (won 100% of 7)5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8519)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 11 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465feeder-of-marketsprimmRN1
Jaguars vs. Ravens
opposite sides · consensus Jaguars
Ravens $43K——Jaguars $21K
Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $26K——Jaguars $1.5K
Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
——Ravens $9.7KJaguars $6.1K
Spread: UTSA (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Florida Atlantic
——Florida Atlantic $2.4KUTSA $302
Spread: UTSA (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Florida Atlantic
UTSA $1.8K——Florida Atlantic $736
Spread: Suns (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Magic $500——Suns $1.6K
UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 73.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $1.8KOver $253
Spread: James Madison (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus James Madison
——James Madison $1.6KSouthern Miss $408
Spread: James Madison (-17.5)
opposite sides · consensus Southern Miss
——James Madison $1.4KSouthern Miss $268
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Heat
Heat $266——Warriors $510
Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
——Ravens $560Jaguars $174
UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic
same side · consensus Florida Atlantic
——Florida Atlantic $41KFlorida Atlantic $20K
Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
Ravens $15K——Ravens $2.8K
Spread: Jaguars (-16.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
——Ravens $230Ravens $1.8K
Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
——Ravens $1.1KRavens $654
James Madison vs. Southern Miss
same side · consensus James Madison
——Southern Miss $32Southern Miss $365