Consensus PnL -$26K · win rate 62% (8–5, n=13) · PM monthly #824 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-25.9K
Record
8W / 5L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
46.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1160
Source
PM monthly #824
Record (90 d)
7/9 · 78%
Trades
55
Markets
42
Volume
$479.8K
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $88K · now 96¢with the consensus (72% of 118)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $771 · now 10¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (78% of 59)
Specialties
9 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 40¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where feeder-of-markets's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 44%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.