Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ravens, while the market favors Jaguars (52%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (58%) · Ravens at 49¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 6

Jaguars52¢Ravens48¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 58%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$17.79

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 48.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars52%

Ravens49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars5 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,235

Combined PnL-$126.98

Ravens7 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares19,257

Combined PnL+$144.76

Jaguars — 42%Ravens — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jaguars) and the top 1000 (9 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRavens 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Jaguarsavg 52¢	$7.0K	$5.7K	-$104.03	58% 46718-33677 (80395)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Ravensavg 48¢	$8.1K	$3.9K	+$40.64	59% 94-65 (159)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Ravensavg 48.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$2.65	55% 3125-2511 (5636)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Ravensavg 47.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$40.21	43% 112-147 (259)
nigiri99	Jaguarsavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.36	46% 8595-10246 (18841)
DV dv-pmCTR	Ravensavg 46¢	$987.16	$1.0K	+$53.65	49% 3330-3529 (6859)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Ravensavg 47.1¢	$281.76	$287	+$5.23	42% 630-874 (1504)
NM NM-P	Jaguarsavg 52.1¢	$270.8	$267.8	-$3	64% 9929-5531 (15460)
0xheavy888	Jaguarsavg 52¢	$264.68	$262.14	-$2.55	56% 7922-6326 (14248)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jaguarsavg 51.7¢	$150.09	$147.29	-$4.05	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Ravensavg 46¢	$47.88	$49.96	+$2.08	51% 37678-36905 (74583)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Ravensavg 48¢	$28.56	$28.86	+$0.3	51% 1905-1854 (3759)

VeryLucky888

Jaguars

Invested

$6,961.06

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$104.03

Record

58%

46718-33677 (80395)

lightotunnel35CTR

Ravens

Invested

$8,126.77

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$40.64

Record

59%

94-65 (159)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,422.35

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$2.65

Record

55%

3125-2511 (5636)

DolphinBallerCTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,522.95

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$40.21

Record

43%

112-147 (259)

nigiri99

Jaguars

Invested

$1,388.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.36

Record

46%

8595-10246 (18841)

dv-pmCTR

Ravens

Invested

$987.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$53.65

Record

49%

3330-3529 (6859)

BreakTheBankCTR

Ravens

Invested

$281.76

Value

$287

PnL

+$5.23

Record

42%

630-874 (1504)

NM-P

Jaguars

Invested

$270.8

Value

$267.8

PnL

-$3

Record

64%

9929-5531 (15460)

0xheavy888

Jaguars

Invested

$264.68

Value

$262.14

PnL

-$2.55

Record

56%

7922-6326 (14248)

HomeRunHazard

Jaguars

Invested

$150.09

Value

$147.29

PnL

-$4.05

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$47.88

Value

$49.96

PnL

+$2.08

Record

51%

37678-36905 (74583)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$28.56

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$0.3

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jaguars) and the top 1000 (9 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRavens 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Ravens 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.