Spread: UTSA (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (50%) · Florida Atlantic at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Florida Atlantic
6
Florida Atlantic 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$363.01
43.1¢ → 98.5¢
+129% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Florida Atlanticavg 42.7¢ | $1.5K | $2.4K | +$908.6 | 47% 1273-1454 (2727) |
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 65.8¢ | $474.15 | $411.86 | -$62.3 | 51% 4775-4634 (9409) |
| └ Florida Atlantic leg | Florida Atlanticavg 65.8¢ | $308.61 | $318.92 | +$10.31 | |
| └ UTSA leg | UTSAavg 57¢ | $165.54 | $92.94 | -$72.61 | |
 RN1CTR | UTSAavg 58¢ | $521.31 | $301.95 | -$219.37 | 53% 61517-53815 (115332) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | UTSAavg 35.2¢ | $399.71 | $107.83 | -$291.87 | 53% 12169-10676 (22845) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 79¢ | $21.37 | $22.45 | +$1.08 | 47% 1256-1431 (2687) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | UTSAavg 57.3¢ | $97.44 | $10.15 | -$37.13 | 54% 9826-8264 (18090) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 80¢ | $6.93 | $8.62 | +$1.69 | 47% 11844-13618 (25462) |
Invested
$1,536.47
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$908.6
Record
47%
1273-1454 (2727)
Invested
$474.15
Value
$411.86
PnL
-$62.3
Record
51%
4775-4634 (9409)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$521.31
Value
$301.95
PnL
-$219.37
Record
53%
61517-53815 (115332)
Invested
$399.71
Value
$107.83
PnL
-$291.87
Record
53%
12169-10676 (22845)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$21.37
Value
$22.45
PnL
+$1.08
Record
47%
1256-1431 (2687)
Invested
$97.44
Value
$10.15
PnL
-$37.13
Record
54%
9826-8264 (18090)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$8.62
PnL
+$1.69
Record
47%
11844-13618 (25462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.