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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0805260x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorp
Record (consensus markets)85% (44–8, n=52)58% (4518–3290, n=7808)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6492–5997, n=12489)
Consensus PnL$25K$7.8M$7.9M$3.3M
Tracked asPM monthly #759PM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus92% (34 of 37 open)68% (13 of 19 open)76% (26 of 34 open)72% (184 of 256 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22
Settled positions, side won100% of 27 at avg 72¢, ROI +26%59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢0%17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 423)
Entries 30–50¢7% (won 100% of 2)24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 243)
Entries 50–70¢44% (won 100% of 12)29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)17% (won 62% of 255)
Entries 70¢ and up48% (won 100% of 13)30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)38% (won 94% of 561)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0805260x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorp
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.4KYes $78K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $5.4KYes $135——
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $56No $90K—
Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys
same side · consensus Tommy Paul
—Tommy Paul $68K—Tommy Paul $12K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14KYes $51K——
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $5.8K—Yes $2.6K
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $4.5KNo $1.0K—