No settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #688 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #688
Record (90 d)
94/149 · 63%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 14 on the consensus side (43%)- Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?Yes $1.1K · now 74¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (13% of 16)
- Will CJ Carr win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?No $996 · now 83¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Warriors vs. SpursSpurs $411 · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (25% of 7)
- Will Ezra Frech win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?Yes $324 · now 55¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (29% of 15)
- UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 51.5Over $320 · now 7¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Under)
- Knicks vs. PacersKnicks $159 · now 71¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Pacers)
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5Over $108 · now 23¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Under)
- Rangers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Over $68 · now 13¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
127 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 50¢- NBA
+10 pts
side won 58% of 26 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +17%
- Elections
+17 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +8%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 72% of 25 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 20% of 15 at an average 36¢ entry (−16 pts against the price), ROI −19%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 5% of 38)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 48% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 60% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 93% of 43)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.