UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 51.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 14%
$6.1K
-$5.13
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Overavg 52¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$29.98 | 7% 4-53 (57) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $999.16 | $1.0K | +$10.41 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 48.3¢ | $928.5 | $933.39 | +$4.89 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $480 | $485 | +$5 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $169.75 | +$1.75 | 59% 3477-2368 (5845) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $169.75 | +$1.75 | 20% 98-382 (480) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $100.63 | $101.68 | +$1.05 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
Invested
$3,274.16
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$29.98
Record
7%
4-53 (57)
Invested
$999.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.41
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$928.5
Value
$933.39
PnL
+$4.89
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$480
Value
$485
PnL
+$5
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$168
Value
$169.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
59%
3477-2368 (5845)
Invested
$168
Value
$169.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
20%
98-382 (480)
Invested
$100.63
Value
$101.68
PnL
+$1.05
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.