Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Knicks (71%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Knicks vs. Pacers
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (20%) · Pacers at 30¢ · $989 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 20%
1 arb excluded
$988.83
$6.58
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Pacersavg 31.7¢ | $362.11 | $404.75 | +$42.64 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Pacersavg 34.8¢ | $317.84 | $341.64 | +$23.8 | 23% 36-121 (157) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 34.8¢ | $182.32 | $232.84 | +$50.52 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 69.1¢ | $135.52 | $108.8 | -$26.72 | |
7E 0x7e59...7b8b | Knicksavg 62.7¢ | $179.5 | $158.76 | -$20.73 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Knicksavg 69.6¢ | $81.53 | $68.66 | -$11.37 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Knicksavg 70¢ | $16.8 | $13.32 | -$3.48 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
A4 0xa427...7c1d<$100 | Knicksavg 71¢ | $2.18 | $1.7 | -$0.48 | — |
Invested
$362.11
Value
$404.75
PnL
+$42.64
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$317.84
Value
$341.64
PnL
+$23.8
Record
23%
36-121 (157)
Both legs:
Invested
$179.5
Value
$158.76
PnL
-$20.73
Record
—
Invested
$81.53
Value
$68.66
PnL
-$11.37
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$13.32
PnL
-$3.48
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.48
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.