Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5

5 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 83¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$557.59

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 83¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 17 top traders (29%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,267

Combined PnL+$711.7

Over12 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,748

Combined PnL-$154.11

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Underavg 80¢	$4.5K	$5.1K	+$643.72	61% 36-23 (59)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 16.1¢	$461.51	$517.04	+$55.53	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
AN Anon455	Underavg 72¢	$276.18	$338.84	+$62.65	46% 200-233 (433)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 73¢	$141.94	$155.56	+$13.61	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
RN1CTR	Overavg 28¢	$226.64	$145.73	-$80.91	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
GA GaditimaCTR	Overavg 19¢	$95	$100	+$5	48% 131-141 (272)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 19.5¢	$153.65	$87	+$36.01	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$77.19	$81.25	+$4.06	21% 63-235 (298)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 89.8¢	$87.61	$79.97	-$7.64	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 19.4¢	$31.39	$32.39	+$1	27% 79-219 (298)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 21¢	$2.0K	$31.19	-$168.05	55% 843-701 (1544)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$10	$18	+$8	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 20.4¢	$28.71	$12.92	-$10.48	55% 729-596 (1325)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$38.56	$7.91	-$5.14	49% 786-829 (1615)
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 82.3¢	$5.76	$5.11	-$0.65	52% 235-217 (452)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$2.94	$4.41	+$1.47	49% 973-998 (1971)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 14.5¢	$2.86	$2.26	-$0.6	36% 410-719 (1129)

Zzzz87

Under

Invested

$4,476.62

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$643.72

Record

61%

36-23 (59)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$461.51

Value

$517.04

PnL

+$55.53

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$276.18

Value

$338.84

PnL

+$62.65

Record

46%

200-233 (433)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$141.94

Value

$155.56

PnL

+$13.61

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$226.64

Value

$145.73

PnL

-$80.91

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

GaditimaCTR

Over

Invested

$95

Value

$100

PnL

+$5

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$153.65

Value

$87

PnL

+$36.01

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.19

Value

$81.25

PnL

+$4.06

Record

21%

63-235 (298)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$87.61

Value

$79.97

PnL

-$7.64

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.39

Value

$32.39

PnL

+$1

Record

27%

79-219 (298)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$2,008.94

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$168.05

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$18

PnL

+$8

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.71

Value

$12.92

PnL

-$10.48

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.56

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$5.14

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.65

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.94

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$1.47

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.6

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 17 top traders (29%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.