Will CJ Carr win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 27

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sun, Dec 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$716.64

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 67.3¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,480

Combined PnL+$767.77

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,471

Combined PnL-$51.13

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$346.75	$599.9	+$487.43	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
Robbb	Noavg 72.8¢	$628.98	$580.25	-$50.01	77% 2132-646 (2778)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.5¢	$534.71	$345.05	+$2.54	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$198.15	$217.58	+$52.01	51% 327-314 (641)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$89.61	$200.87	+$111.27	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$19.88	$127.73	+$107.85	36% 595-1048 (1643)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$97.85	$87.91	-$2.38	40% 6684-10176 (16860)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$54.64	$70.4	+$15.76	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.7¢	$15.54	$36.5	+$20.96
└ No leg	Noavg 78.2¢	$39.1	$33.9	-$5.2
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$82.92	$42.23	-$1.51	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$16.05	$16.28	+$0.23	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$2.85	$15.1	+$7.47	44% 516-666 (1182)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.08	$0.38	+$1.74	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$346.75

Value

$599.9

PnL

+$487.43

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Robbb

Invested

$628.98

Value

$580.25

PnL

-$50.01

Record

77%

2132-646 (2778)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$534.71

Value

$345.05

PnL

+$2.54

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$198.15

Value

$217.58

PnL

+$52.01

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$89.61

Value

$200.87

PnL

+$111.27

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$19.88

Value

$127.73

PnL

+$107.85

Record

36%

595-1048 (1643)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$97.85

Value

$87.91

PnL

-$2.38

Record

40%

6684-10176 (16860)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Invested

$54.64

Value

$70.4

PnL

+$15.76

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Both legs:

Yes$15.5413.7¢+$20.96

No$39.178.2¢-$5.2

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$82.92

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$1.51

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.05

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.23

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$7.47

Record

44%

516-666 (1182)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$1.74

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.4%

67.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.