Rangers vs. Flames: O/U 5.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 71¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 71¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,932

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$161.01

Total Shares537

Combined PnL-$80.86

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 45¢	$1.7K	$2.9K	+$1.2K	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 62.3¢	$528.14	$597.54	+$69.4	15% 57-313 (370)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 45¢	$414.63	$244.23	-$16.76	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 39.1¢	$86.18	$74.88	-$11.3	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 54¢	$101.88	$43.39	-$58.49	69% 2587-1182 (3769)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$40.87	$26.46	-$11.56	49% 693-734 (1427)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$15.8	$16.28	+$0.48	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 46¢	$5.34	$5.85	+$0.51	55% 683-554 (1237)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,681.36

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$528.14

Value

$597.54

PnL

+$69.4

Record

15%

57-313 (370)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$414.63

Value

$244.23

PnL

-$16.76

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.18

Value

$74.88

PnL

-$11.3

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$101.88

Value

$43.39

PnL

-$58.49

Record

69%

2587-1182 (3769)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.87

Value

$26.46

PnL

-$11.56

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.8

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.48

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.51

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.