PolyConsensus

Weather: what top Polymarket traders hold

Temperatures, storms and other weather markets. These are the Weather markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.

A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.

Live consensus markets
22
Recently settled, consensus right
59 of 117
Prices as of
Oct 25, 07:19 UTC

Live Weather consensus markets (22)

Top traders in Weather

Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Weather consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.

  1. 1.SadSquid54333+45 ptsside won 100% of 311 · avg entry 54¢ · ROI +37%
  2. 2.kekasaur+49 ptsside won 100% of 76 · avg entry 51¢ · ROI +55%
  3. 3.Medo3D+40 ptsside won 100% of 181 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +43%
  4. 4.0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f+37 ptsside won 100% of 407 · avg entry 63¢ · ROI +39%
  5. 5.TheGreekTraderPM+38 ptsside won 99% of 441 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +32%
  6. 6.banepir+37 ptsside won 98% of 1149 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +29%
  7. 7.BrightStars+36 ptsside won 98% of 424 · avg entry 62¢ · ROI +34%
  8. 8.pilimili+31 ptsside won 98% of 320 · avg entry 67¢ · ROI +35%
  9. 9.Betziko+41 ptsside won 100% of 26 · avg entry 59¢ · ROI +37%
  10. 10.chongchong37+48 ptsside won 100% of 14 · avg entry 52¢ · ROI +57%

Recently settled Weather markets

What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.

Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.