Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 25?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $111 held · ends Oct 25

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$110.54

Combined PnL

-$5.28

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$110.54

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$5.28

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$50.74	$44.71	-$2.45	55% 105-85 (190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$77.07	$41	-$3	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$20.4	$20	-$0.25	57% 263-196 (459)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$50.8	$2.73	+$0.56	56% 3178-2517 (5695)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 79¢	$2.2	$2.08	-$0.14	54% 467-405 (872)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$50.74

Value

$44.71

PnL

-$2.45

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$77.07

Value

$41

PnL

-$3

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

263-196 (459)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$50.8

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

467-405 (872)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.