Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 25?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $300 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$299.56
$15.69
40.8¢ → 58.5¢
+43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 41¢ | $147.49 | $172.73 | +$7.25 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
 fildoro<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $40.65 | $48.78 | +$1.52 | 60% 339-230 (569) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $41.91 | $41.63 | -$0.02 | 57% 263-196 (459) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $24.53 | $28.04 | +$5.26 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $9.47 | $8.38 | +$1.68 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
Invested
$147.49
Value
$172.73
PnL
+$7.25
Record
55%
105-85 (190)
fildoro<$100Invested
$40.65
Value
$48.78
PnL
+$1.52
Record
60%
339-230 (569)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$41.91
Value
$41.63
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
263-196 (459)
Invested
$24.53
Value
$28.04
PnL
+$5.26
Record
54%
467-405 (872)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$8.38
PnL
+$1.68
Record
65%
6460-3412 (9872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.