Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 69¢ · $652 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$651.62
-$14.46
79.1¢ → 69¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $306.51 | $453.77 | +$147.27 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.2¢ | $251.86 | $251.15 | -$0.71 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $54.65 | $202.62 | +$147.97 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 74.5¢ | $172.92 | $94.5 | -$4.01 | 56% 3178-2517 (5695) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $46.95 | $38.5 | -$4.6 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $48.43 | $34.42 | -$6.77 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $21.54 | $30.42 | +$0.91 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
Invested
$306.51
Value
$453.77
PnL
+$147.27
Record
53%
504-456 (960)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.92
Value
$94.5
PnL
-$4.01
Record
56%
3178-2517 (5695)
Invested
$46.95
Value
$38.5
PnL
-$4.6
Record
54%
467-405 (872)
Invested
$48.43
Value
$34.42
PnL
-$6.77
Record
65%
6460-3412 (9872)
Invested
$21.54
Value
$30.42
PnL
+$0.91
Record
55%
105-85 (190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.