Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $618 held · ends Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$617.75

Combined PnL

$318.51

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 99.4¢

+378% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$614.95

Total Shares787

Combined PnL+$426.15

No3 traders

Total Value$2.8

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$107.64

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 23.6¢	$140.63	$583.29	+$442.66	53% 504-456 (960)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$23.03	$31.66	-$16.5	55% 105-85 (190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$91.41	$1.89	-$84.77	65% 6460-3412 (9872)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 19.6¢	$5.23	$0.52	-$4.71	56% 3178-2517 (5695)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$18.56	$0.39	-$18.17	57% 263-196 (459)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$140.63

Value

$583.29

PnL

+$442.66

Record

53%

504-456 (960)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.03

Value

$31.66

PnL

-$16.5

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$91.41

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$84.77

Record

65%

6460-3412 (9872)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$4.71

Record

56%

3178-2517 (5695)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$18.56

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$18.17

Record

57%

263-196 (459)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.