Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 69¢ · $136 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$135.97
-$5.03
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $84.7 | $80.99 | -$3.71 | 56% 3178-2517 (5695) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $42.88 | $42.88 | +$0 | 55% 105-85 (190) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $27.56 | $12.09 | -$1.32 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.