Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 50¢ · $357 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$356.95
$2.24
52.1¢ → 50¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $280.33 | $284.41 | +$4.08 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 45.7¢ | $25.36 | $28.19 | +$2.83 | 64% 11992-6689 (18681) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 60.6¢ | $30.91 | $24.22 | -$6.69 | 65% 4147-2191 (6338) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $9.67 | $10.2 | +$0.54 | 56% 3178-2517 (5695) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $6.06 | $6 | -$0 | 57% 263-196 (459) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $7.77 | $3.93 | +$1.48 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
Invested
$280.33
Value
$284.41
PnL
+$4.08
Record
53%
504-456 (960)
balthazar<$100Invested
$25.36
Value
$28.19
PnL
+$2.83
Record
64%
11992-6689 (18681)
Invested
$30.91
Value
$24.22
PnL
-$6.69
Record
65%
4147-2191 (6338)
Invested
$9.67
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.54
Record
56%
3178-2517 (5695)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$6
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
263-196 (459)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$1.48
Record
65%
6460-3412 (9872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.