Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 26?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 39¢ · $228 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$228.05
$9.05
31.5¢ → 38.8¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 31.4¢ | $178.51 | $220 | +$8.8 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $12.54 | $8.05 | +$0.25 | 65% 6460-3412 (9872) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.