Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on October 25?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 30¢ · $920 held · ends Oct 25

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$919.79

Combined PnL

-$5.58

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 30¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$156.08

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$5.58

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$711.99	$763.71	+$51.72	53% 504-456 (960)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.9¢	$547.17	$589.76	+$42.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.4¢	$164.82	$173.95	+$9.13
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$117.56	$113.4	-$4.16	50% 1550-1521 (3071)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$44.1	$42.68	-$1.42	55% 105-85 (190)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$711.99

Value

$763.71

PnL

+$51.72

Record

53%

504-456 (960)

Both legs:

No$547.1764.9¢+$42.59

Yes$164.8228.4¢+$9.13

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.56

Value

$113.4

PnL

-$4.16

Record

50%

1550-1521 (3071)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.1

Value

$42.68

PnL

-$1.42

Record

55%

105-85 (190)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.