Known as applepie3 since Nov 8 2026 · Previously known as: bigapplepie (Nov 8 2026), applepie3 (Nov 5 – Nov 7 2026), musicenthusiast (Nov 3 – Nov 5 2026)
Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 60% (424–287, n=711) · PM monthly #868 · holds 63 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.8K
Record
424W / 287L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 711 settled
Batting Avg
81.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#759
Source
PM monthly #868
Record (90 d)
202/320 · 63%
Trades
2,849
Markets
907
Volume
$81.5K
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Top consensus positions
63 in listed consensus markets · 46 of 63 on the consensus side (73%)- Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?No $966 · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?Yes $848 · now 91¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?No $840 · now 86¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Yes $735 · now 87¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?Yes $643 · now 36¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?No $634 · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Yes $488 · now 51¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?Yes $476 · now 34¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
Specialties
343 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 47¢- Elections
+18 pts
side won 67% of 261 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 32% of 25 at an average 40¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 28% of 88)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 46% of 112)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 82% of 65)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 94% of 78)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.