Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$489.8
73.3¢ → 31¢
-58% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $1.2K | $595.2 | +$6.23 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.8¢ | $375.11 | $393.61 | -$65.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $217.82 | $201.59 | +$71.31 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $1.1K | $417.05 | -$668.24 | 56% 15272-11802 (27074) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 16.2¢ | $61.19 | $377.54 | +$316.35 | 53% 1116-997 (2113) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $257.91 | $120 | -$137.91 | 55% 447-366 (813) |
Invested
$1,193
Value
$595.2
PnL
+$6.23
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$1,124
Value
$417.05
PnL
-$668.24
Record
56%
15272-11802 (27074)
Invested
$61.19
Value
$377.54
PnL
+$316.35
Record
53%
1116-997 (2113)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$257.91
Value
$120
PnL
-$137.91
Record
55%
447-366 (813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.