Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$186.37

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 76¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,499

Combined PnL+$184.32

No4 traders

Total Value$375.49

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL+$2.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

783h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 65.6¢	$922.11	$895.7	-$23.78	15% 435-2445 (2880)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.6¢	$587.96	$622.51	+$34.53
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$330.97	$273.18	-$58.31
clazzy1	Yesavg 62.7¢	$514.46	$569.94	+$88.29	64% 479-265 (744)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 38.5¢	$784.8	$357.35	+$5.15	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 62¢	$230.6	$258.5	+$42.77	57% 1119-850 (1969)
musicenthusiast	Yes	$199.56	$199.56	+$50.26	59% 413-291 (704)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 71.6¢	$159.6	$105.17	-$0.44	17% 1079-5368 (6447)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.6¢	$64.18	$62.28	-$13.58
└ No leg	Noavg 29.2¢	$41	$42.89	+$13.14
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$11.8	$13.9	+$3	27% 6761-18637 (25398)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$23.52	$9.15	-$6.19	48% 8595-9145 (17740)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$5	$7.93	+$2.93	50% 9541-9557 (19098)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$0.9	$1.05	+$0.16	25% 327-975 (1302)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$922.11

Value

$895.7

PnL

-$23.78

Record

15%

435-2445 (2880)

Both legs:

Yes$587.9665.6¢+$34.53

No$330.9737¢-$58.31

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$514.46

Value

$569.94

PnL

+$88.29

Record

64%

479-265 (744)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$784.8

Value

$357.35

PnL

+$5.15

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$230.6

Value

$258.5

PnL

+$42.77

Record

57%

1119-850 (1969)

musicenthusiast

Yes

Invested

$199.56

Value

$199.56

PnL

+$50.26

Record

59%

413-291 (704)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$159.6

Value

$105.17

PnL

-$0.44

Record

17%

1079-5368 (6447)

Both legs:

Yes$64.1871.6¢-$13.58

No$4129.2¢+$13.14

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.8

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$3

Record

27%

6761-18637 (25398)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$23.52

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$6.19

Record

48%

8595-9145 (17740)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$2.93

Record

50%

9541-9557 (19098)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.16

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

783h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.7%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.