Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.7K
$1.0K
34.6¢ → 85.5¢
+147% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
135h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 applepie3 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $449.45 | $840.31 | +$390.86 | 60% 472-316 (788) |
 vinii | Noavg 26.5¢ | $203.19 | $666.13 | +$462.94 | 74% 3348-1186 (4534) |
 2B9S | Noavg 5¢ | $5.26 | $101.76 | +$96.5 | 15% 4979-29159 (34138) |
10 101456<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.75 | $65.28 | +$64.53 | 52% 153-143 (296) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Noavg 44.7¢ | $25.9 | $52.2 | +$26.3 | 48% 1386-1529 (2915) |
applepie3Invested
$449.45
Value
$840.31
PnL
+$390.86
Record
60%
472-316 (788)
viniiInvested
$203.19
Value
$666.13
PnL
+$462.94
Record
74%
3348-1186 (4534)
2B9SInvested
$5.26
Value
$101.76
PnL
+$96.5
Record
15%
4979-29159 (34138)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$65.28
PnL
+$64.53
Record
52%
153-143 (296)
Invested
$25.9
Value
$52.2
PnL
+$26.3
Record
48%
1386-1529 (2915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.