Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Navdeep Bains win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$1.1K
$18.05
37.2¢ → 38¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
588h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 musicenthusiastCTR | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $507.36 | $539.75 | +$52.38 | 59% 455-311 (766) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 64.5¢ | $381.46 | $237.86 | -$8.73 | 40% 6503-9752 (16255) |
 mrworldwide | Noavg 62.5¢ | $187.5 | $186 | -$1.5 | 71% 930-382 (1312) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $76.72 | $60.79 | -$15.93 | 17% 4487-21969 (26456) |
 Crypto-Joe<$100 | Noavg 63.9¢ | $30.69 | $58.9 | -$4.37 | 59% 92-64 (156) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $36.72 | $33.48 | -$3.24 | 43% 10588-14062 (24650) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $3.16 | $2.61 | -$0.55 | 77% 12683-3867 (16550) |
musicenthusiastCTRInvested
$507.36
Value
$539.75
PnL
+$52.38
Record
59%
455-311 (766)
HaradwaithInvested
$381.46
Value
$237.86
PnL
-$8.73
Record
40%
6503-9752 (16255)
mrworldwideInvested
$187.5
Value
$186
PnL
-$1.5
Record
71%
930-382 (1312)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$76.72
Value
$60.79
PnL
-$15.93
Record
17%
4487-21969 (26456)
Crypto-Joe<$100Invested
$30.69
Value
$58.9
PnL
-$4.37
Record
59%
92-64 (156)
Invested
$36.72
Value
$33.48
PnL
-$3.24
Record
43%
10588-14062 (24650)
Invested
$3.16
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$0.55
Record
77%
12683-3867 (16550)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.