Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$63.02
84.2¢ → 90¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
865h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 applepie3 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $887.18 | $915.33 | +$29.73 | 59% 460-314 (774) |
 vinii | Noavg 58¢ | $76.52 | $118.74 | +$42.22 | 73% 3108-1129 (4237) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $38.58 | $37.77 | -$0.82 | 17% 4524-22229 (26753) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $5.18 | $2.01 | -$3.02 | 50% 1042-1050 (2092) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.9¢ | $7.18 | $2 | -$5.1 | 47% 1360-1506 (2866) |
applepie3Invested
$887.18
Value
$915.33
PnL
+$29.73
Record
59%
460-314 (774)
viniiInvested
$76.52
Value
$118.74
PnL
+$42.22
Record
73%
3108-1129 (4237)
2B9S<$100Invested
$38.58
Value
$37.77
PnL
-$0.82
Record
17%
4524-22229 (26753)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$5.18
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$3.02
Record
50%
1042-1050 (2092)
Invested
$7.18
Value
$2
PnL
-$5.1
Record
47%
1360-1506 (2866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.