Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
e46m3fantasy7788HauchnKupaKeepKlan
Record (consensus markets)17% (156–789, n=945)100% (2–0, n=2)no settled marketno settled market
Consensus PnL$536K$245K$117K—
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #60PM monthly #143PM monthly #730
Sides with the consensus73% (321 of 440 open)no open consensus position50% (7 of 14 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
  • Crypto +45 pts n=124, ROI +67%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1174, ROI +26%
  • NBA +14 pts n=146, ROI +19%
none with 10+ settlednot computed yet
Weakest topicNFL −6 pts, n=17—Finance −1 pts, n=121—
Settled positions, side won62% of 5804 at avg 54¢, ROI +30%100% of 116 at avg 55¢, ROI +44%10% of 122 at avg 11¢, ROI −2%—
Entries under 30¢38% (won 18% of 2197)2% (won 100% of 2)89% (won 2% of 108)—
Entries 30–50¢7% (won 53% of 397)31% (won 100% of 36)6% (won 43% of 7)—
Entries 50–70¢9% (won 71% of 531)57% (won 100% of 66)1% (won 100% of 1)—
Entries 70¢ and up46% (won 97% of 2679)10% (won 100% of 12)5% (won 100% of 6)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Markete46m3fantasy7788HauchnKupaKeepKlan
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $9—Yes $182K—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $9——No $16K
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4K—Yes $3.6K—
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.1K—Yes $112—
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $223—No $289—
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $100—No $227—
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
No $2.2K—No $24K—
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $752—Yes $3.0K—
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
Yes $315—Yes $11—
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
Yes $27—Yes $81—