Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 36¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.3K
$754.53
20.7¢ → 35.5¢
+72% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
626h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $351.81 | $988 | +$636.19 | 35% 58-106 (164) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $20.57 | $147.47 | +$126.9 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $135.63 | $114.13 | +$7.47 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $87.81 | $25.16 | -$15.49 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $9.6 | +$0.4 | 56% 255-197 (452) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $9.39 | $8.46 | -$0.93 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
Invested
$351.81
Value
$988
PnL
+$636.19
Record
35%
58-106 (164)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTRInvested
$20.57
Value
$147.47
PnL
+$126.9
Record
50%
513-503 (1016)
Invested
$135.63
Value
$114.13
PnL
+$7.47
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
Invested
$87.81
Value
$25.16
PnL
-$15.49
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
255-197 (452)
Invested
$9.39
Value
$8.46
PnL
-$0.93
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.