Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 91¢ · $613 held · ends Dec 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$612.63

Combined PnL

$35.27

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 90.7¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$556.71

Total Shares581

Combined PnL+$19.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$55.93

Total Shares1,207

Combined PnL+$15.45

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

556h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 97.5¢	$133.71	$131.77	-$1.94	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97.5¢	$121.7	$119.93	-$1.76	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 97.6¢	$112.22	$110.46	-$1.75	49% 8836-9340 (18176)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$53.78	$81.64	+$27.86	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$39.05	$38.42	-$0.5	31% 3472-7762 (11234)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$29.05	$28.61	-$0.44	51% 3681-3532 (7213)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$13.11	$25.74	+$12.63	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$23.28	$22.91	-$0.37	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$20.95	$18.83	-$2.12	27% 6838-18773 (25611)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.3	$17.95	-$1.35	28% 479-1254 (1733)
SteveTheFishCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$5.67	$9.33	+$5.8	72% 58-23 (81)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$4.94	$5.02	+$0.08	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.52	$1.66	-$0.86	51% 542-528 (1070)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yes	$0.37	$0.37	+$0	20% 2587-10256 (12843)

donthackme

Invested

$133.71

Value

$131.77

PnL

-$1.94

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$121.7

Value

$119.93

PnL

-$1.76

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

smallreceipt

Invested

$112.22

Value

$110.46

PnL

-$1.75

Record

49%

8836-9340 (18176)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$53.78

Value

$81.64

PnL

+$27.86

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.05

Value

$38.42

PnL

-$0.5

Record

31%

3472-7762 (11234)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.05

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$0.44

Record

51%

3681-3532 (7213)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$25.74

PnL

+$12.63

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$23.28

Value

$22.91

PnL

-$0.37

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.95

Value

$18.83

PnL

-$2.12

Record

27%

6838-18773 (25611)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$17.95

PnL

-$1.35

Record

28%

479-1254 (1733)

SteveTheFishCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.67

Value

$9.33

PnL

+$5.8

Record

72%

58-23 (81)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0.86

Record

51%

542-528 (1070)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.37

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

2587-10256 (12843)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

556h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.