Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $968 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$968.09

Combined PnL

-$97.07

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 76.4¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$414.07

Total Shares1,605

Combined PnL+$12.32

No9 traders

Total Value$553.93

Total Shares841

Combined PnL-$109.39

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

917h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SteveTheFishCTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$249.19	$254.85	+$5.66	—
E4 e46m3	Noavg 76.7¢	$288.87	$248.14	-$40.73	43% 2560-3355 (5915)
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$118.28	$122.06	+$3.78	39% 27-42 (69)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 84¢	$117.31	$91.98	-$25.32	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
Haradwaith	Noavg 84.3¢	$114.11	$79.08	-$20.1	53% 40-36 (76)
rabbit007CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$34.29	$37.16	+$2.87	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$41.26	$32.95	-$8.31	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$38.85	$32.95	-$5.9	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$40.62	$32.95	-$7.67	40% 1455-2158 (3613)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$19.77	-$0.63	17% 76-374 (450)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$12.75	$12.75	+$0	17% 66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$4.08	$3.35	-$0.73	37% 3197-5378 (8575)

SteveTheFishCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.19

Value

$254.85

PnL

+$5.66

Record

—

e46m3

Invested

$288.87

Value

$248.14

PnL

-$40.73

Record

43%

2560-3355 (5915)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.28

Value

$122.06

PnL

+$3.78

Record

39%

27-42 (69)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$117.31

Value

$91.98

PnL

-$25.32

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

Haradwaith

Invested

$114.11

Value

$79.08

PnL

-$20.1

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

rabbit007CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.29

Value

$37.16

PnL

+$2.87

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$41.26

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$8.31

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$38.85

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$5.9

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$40.62

Value

$32.95

PnL

-$7.67

Record

40%

1455-2158 (3613)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$0.63

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.73

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

917h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.1%

76.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.