Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$209.9
38.7¢ → 61.5¢
+59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
582h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA Hauchn | Noavg 34.1¢ | $328.55 | $558.42 | +$210.62 | 35% 58-106 (164) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $442.67 | $402.51 | -$14.72 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.4¢ | $186.67 | $235.47 | +$48.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $222.68 | $167.04 | -$63.57 | |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $79.21 | $58 | -$21.21 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 54.7¢ | $37.6 | $46.4 | +$8.8 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
MA mamboNB5CTR<$100 | Yes | $11.7 | $11.7 | +$11.7 | 65% 216-115 (331) |
Invested
$328.55
Value
$558.42
PnL
+$210.62
Record
35%
58-106 (164)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$442.67
Value
$402.51
PnL
-$14.72
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.21
Value
$58
PnL
-$21.21
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$37.6
Value
$46.4
PnL
+$8.8
Record
50%
513-503 (1016)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.7
PnL
+$11.7
Record
65%
216-115 (331)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.