PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market46% (224–265, n=489)41% (1654–2418, n=4072)89% (179–23, n=202)
Consensus PnL—-$1.8M$34K$474K
Tracked asPM monthly #895Hand-pickedPM monthly #662was PM monthly #974
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)41% (13 of 32 open)50% (1 of 2 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • MMA +7 pts n=51, ROI +2%
  • Soccer +17 pts n=11, ROI +41%
  • NBA +52 pts n=40, ROI +55%
  • MLB +48 pts n=75, ROI +49%
  • Soccer +51 pts n=32, ROI +49%
Weakest topic—MLB −2 pts, n=17——
Settled positions, side won67% of 70 at avg 59¢, ROI +12%98% of 5076 at avg 92¢, ROI −32%88% of 1060 at avg 58¢, ROI +16%100% of 232 at avg 48¢, ROI +53%
Entries under 30¢7% (won 40% of 5)5% (won 75% of 268)18% (won 59% of 190)9% (won 100% of 20)
Entries 30–50¢14% (won 30% of 10)1% (won 65% of 62)19% (won 87% of 201)40% (won 99% of 93)
Entries 50–70¢54% (won 71% of 38)2% (won 90% of 100)22% (won 93% of 238)47% (won 100% of 110)
Entries 70¢ and up24% (won 88% of 17)92% (won 100% of 4646)41% (won 99% of 431)4% (won 100% of 9)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.