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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Haradwaith | joseph00677 | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 40% (3382–5148, n=8530) | 45% (10–12, n=22) | 63% (989–572, n=1561) | 48% (14109–15586, n=29695) |
| Consensus PnL | -$465K | $5.3M | $3.2M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #252 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #104 | PM monthly #28 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (410 of 589 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (69 of 96 open) | 66% (107 of 163 open) |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −6 pts, n=556 | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 39% of 3845 at avg 42¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25975 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 53% (won 3% of 2055) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 10% (won 57% of 2593) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 35% of 170) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 22% (won 94% of 5682) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 54% of 178) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 35% (won 99% of 9181) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 89% of 1442) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 33% (won 100% of 8519) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.