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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)53% (5923–5296, n=11219)53% (10–9, n=19)65% (886–468, n=1354)61% (4023–2616, n=6639)
Consensus PnL$3.3M$5.6M$4.2M-$858K
Tracked asPM monthly #21PM monthly #1PM monthly #145PM monthly #627
Sides with the consensus63% (199 of 315 open)no open consensus position74% (34 of 46 open)60% (3 of 5 open)
Strongest topics
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicOther Sports −13 pts, n=22—NFL −9 pts, n=139Politics −7 pts, n=125
Settled positions, side won56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%63% of 8890 at avg 64¢, ROI 0%
Entries under 30¢29% (won 11% of 423)12% (won 0% of 2)13% (won 15% of 168)1% (won 20% of 92)
Entries 30–50¢16% (won 40% of 243)6% (won 0% of 1)20% (won 39% of 256)25% (won 44% of 2260)
Entries 50–70¢17% (won 62% of 255)65% (won 73% of 11)24% (won 58% of 314)40% (won 55% of 3534)
Entries 70¢ and up38% (won 94% of 561)18% (won 67% of 3)43% (won 93% of 550)34% (won 87% of 3004)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.