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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | ndb1 | TheWindKnowsmyName | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 46% (560–665, n=1225) | 65% (886–468, n=1354) | 70% (166–71, n=237) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.2M | $4.2M | -$96K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #145 | was PM monthly #953 |
| Sides with the consensus | 48% (10 of 21 open) | 73% (33 of 45 open) | 56% (132 of 234 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 127 at avg 68¢, ROI +28% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 9% (won 64% of 11) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 17% (won 95% of 21) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 14% (won 94% of 18) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 61% (won 99% of 77) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | TheWindKnowsmyName |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $48 | No $205 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $16K | — | Yes $2.0K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $15K | — | No $371 |