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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankgabigolgoogleplayHomeRunHazard
Record (consensus markets)56% (20–16, n=36)no settled market50% (5–5, n=10)54% (208–178, n=386)
Consensus PnL$822K—$430K$230K
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #995PM monthly #17PM monthly #7
Sides with the consensus53% (9 of 17 open)100% (1 of 1 open)0% (0 of 1 open)66% (111 of 168 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +51 pts n=14, ROI +48%
not computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 23 at avg 50¢, ROI +47%—100% of 5 at avg 51¢, ROI +49%100% of 97 at avg 54¢, ROI +46%
Entries under 30¢0%—0%1% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢57% (won 100% of 13)—20% (won 100% of 1)32% (won 100% of 31)
Entries 50–70¢39% (won 100% of 9)—80% (won 100% of 4)57% (won 100% of 55)
Entries 70¢ and up4% (won 100% of 1)—0%10% (won 100% of 10)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankgabigolgoogleplayHomeRunHazard
Nets vs. Pelicans
opposite sides · consensus Pelicans
Nets $260K——Pelicans $3.9K
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
opposite sides · consensus Nuggets
Grizzlies $90K——Nuggets $5.1K
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $10K——Nuggets $22K
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $682——Thunder $4.2K
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Trail Blazers
Trail Blazers $134——Thunder $3.6K
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Nuggets
Grizzlies $2——Nuggets $37
Spurs vs. Bulls
same side · consensus Spurs
Spurs $166K——Spurs $9.3K
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
same side · consensus Nets
Nets $831——Nets $5.2K
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)
same side · consensus Grizzlies
Grizzlies $279——Grizzlies $764