Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Pelicans (64%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nets vs. Pelicans
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (83%) · Nets at 37¢ · $321 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Nets
6
Nets 83%
$321.04
$0.71
36¢ → 36.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNets at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Netsavg 36¢ | $184.5 | $184.5 | +$0 | 46% 252-296 (548) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Pelicansavg 63¢ | $45.5 | $46.23 | +$0.72 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $40.17 | $40.17 | -$0 | 57% 3177-2395 (5572) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $23.55 | $23.91 | +$0.36 | 23% 33-109 (142) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36.7¢ | $19.4 | $19.03 | -$0.38 | 49% 612-639 (1251) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Netsavg 36¢ | $7.2 | $7.2 | -$0 | 36% 315-551 (866) |
Invested
$184.5
Value
$184.5
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
252-296 (548)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$46.23
PnL
+$0.72
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$40.17
Value
$40.17
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3177-2395 (5572)
Invested
$23.55
Value
$23.91
PnL
+$0.36
Record
23%
33-109 (142)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.03
PnL
-$0.38
Record
49%
612-639 (1251)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0
Record
36%
315-551 (866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.