Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpMitchieboi
Record (consensus markets)41% (616–869, n=1485)43% (11774–15353, n=27127)55% (13343–10705, n=24048)86% (6–1, n=7)
Consensus PnL$8.4M-$9.5M$1.4M$30K
Tracked asPM monthly #1was PM monthly #87PM monthly #14PM monthly #843
Sides with the consensus88% (29 of 33 open)67% (8 of 12 open)66% (80 of 122 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic——NFL −24 pts, n=12—
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%56% of 3115 at avg 55¢, ROI +22%83% of 6 at avg 63¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)4% (won 97% of 237)30% (won 9% of 919)17% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)26% (won 100% of 1446)15% (won 37% of 455)17% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)40% (won 100% of 2198)14% (won 63% of 439)17% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)30% (won 100% of 1675)42% (won 94% of 1302)50% (won 100% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpMitchieboi
Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Ugo Blanchet
opposite sides · consensus Ugo Blanchet
—Ugo Blanchet $3.7KBuvaysar Gadamauri $5.8K—
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $141Yes $2.8K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: James Duckworth vs Cameron Norrie
same side · consensus Cameron Norrie
—Cameron Norrie $15KCameron Norrie $12K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Yannick Hanfmann
same side · consensus Alex Michelsen
—Alex Michelsen $14KAlex Michelsen $5.5K—
Hersonissos 3: Nikita Mashtakov vs Adrian Andreev
same side · consensus Adrian Andreev
—Adrian Andreev $12KAdrian Andreev $7.5K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $1.2KUnder $13K—
Orleans: Edas Butvilas vs Cosme Rolland De Ravel
same side · consensus Cosme Rolland De Ravel
—Cosme Rolland De Ravel $10KCosme Rolland De Ravel $304—